The PROPERTY DOCTORS, Sydney Australia Novak Properties

EP. 1363 THE AUSTRALIA DAY STOCK EXPLOSION?

• Mark Novak, Billy Drury • Season 29 • Episode 1363

Share episode

Unlock the secrets of the Northern Beaches property market as we uncover the trends shaping this bustling scene post-Australia Day. Could the current stock levels be signaling a shift from a buyer's market to a seller's paradise? Our exploration reveals how the number of properties available plays a crucial role in determining market conditions. With last year's peak and trough fresh in our minds, we dissect the seasonal rhythms and lifestyle influences that keep this market dynamic. Tune in to hear why buyers are feeling a renewed sense of optimism and how they are navigating this energized environment.

As we celebrate the joys of a short workweek, we can't help but share the buzz surrounding Melbourne's property scene, including some intriguing feedback from C-level executives. Whether you're a buyer, seller, or simply a market enthusiast, you'll find our insights both enlightening and encouraging. We wrap up on a positive note, exchanging insights and joy that this season brings to everyone involved. Feel free to reach out with your thoughts and questions, and let's continue this exciting journey until we meet again!

Speaker 1:

Ladies and gentlemen, people are asking us what happens after Australia Day with property. Is there a lot of stock coming on? Not a lot. A lot of stock coming on. We're going to talk about it and how it influences our lives.

Speaker 2:

I'm the ringleader, so I'm gonna Giddy up, ladies and gentlemen, this is to talk about? It's the unofficial start of the property market returning for 2025.

Speaker 1:

It's the official start of traffic back in Sydney. Yeah, school holidays almost over.

Speaker 2:

People almost fully back to work. Brokers, solicitors, they're all back to normal. Yeah, has it always been this way, always, but good luck.

Speaker 1:

Something I'd like to Always been this way Always. But something I won't entertain, which is probably an obvious one after this weekend, billy.

Speaker 2:

Bob, such a good question. I think sometimes it's just personal lifestyle People are away, people have got the kids off school and the thought of doing open homes is just way too much. Sometimes I think they're a little bit, you know, guided by what they see in the news and think that it's a quiet marketplace during that time, or they just follow the, you know, follow kind of the herd and put the property on the market when everyone else is doing it. It is strange.

Speaker 1:

Put the property on the market when everyone else is doing it. It is strange. And realestatecom and domain report the highest number of months of December and January. Why?

Speaker 2:

Because people have got time and they do what they love and they're browsing, yeah, but we are like news reporters this morning here to report what's happening on the grounds of the Northern Beaches. It's just the number one conversation I had on the weekend with over 50 open home attendees. I know for the rest of the sales team met a lot of buyers out there. Everyone is asking what's on the Act on realestatecom. That obviously doesn't include people doing off markets or free markets, whatever you want to call it. They're basically not online yet, but they're still showing people through. It doesn't include those homeowners, but 700 properties online. That's the number.

Speaker 1:

Find out there. So the people will talk about auction clearance rates, but that's only for properties that are going to auction. What about markets and I won't even say sub-markets, I'll say bigger markets than the auction. Market is people for sale and our number one portal on for people for searching is realestatecom. It's twice as big using when we're watching the metric of how many properties are advertised in our suburbs. So we've got 100,000 homes on the northern beaches and out of a hundred thousand homes we track how many are for sale and I like. But how many people are motivated for sale on real estate paying to be on realestatecom?

Speaker 2:

Yeah, that's right, it's a great metric and you've got the numbers from last year. If you want to read those out to give people an idea of what was happening this time last year because it is seasonally the date in everyone's calendar Australia Day, mark, I guess sometimes the second lot of stock coming, because we did see a little bit in the last three, four weeks post the 1st of Jan there was 200 properties that launched from the 31st of December to mid-January, so that was kind of the first wave back, but it only represented about two thirds of what it was last year in terms of when we had the most stock. And not all of them are brand new properties. Some properties didn't sell last year and what they do is they just put a pause on the campaign. The listing comes off realestatecom but they put it back up with a fresh listing effectively, but I normally mean I saw a few homes Sometimes. Yeah, absolutely. What were the numbers from last year, mark?

Speaker 1:

I think it's interesting. The amount of stock is available is interesting and people don't know if this is a lot or if it's not a lot. If it's 1,200 to 1,400 properties advertised on realestatecom on the northern beaches, again, there's about 100,000 properties on the northern beaches. If there's that amount of stock on the market, we would generally regard that, as agents, as a buyer's market. So the control is in the hand of the buyers and that's a market where a buyer's market is a market where there's a lot of properties. Price growth is soft level or soft, or maybe even negative. It's a negative, negative market where prices are going down, negative. It's a negative, negative market where prices are going down. On the other side of it, if we're sitting at peak periods at 500 properties 600 properties then that's regarded as a seller's market where there's exceptional capital growth in our marketplace. So stock levels on the market is an excellent metric to measure whether it's a buyer's market, a seller's market or right in between.

Speaker 2:

we call a balanced market yeah, absolutely, have you got the numbers there from last year?

Speaker 1:

sure do so. Last year, at peak period last year, we were at 900. Oh, where'd it go? At peak period last year, we were at 900. 170 properties. So November last year, before the decline of stock for sale started, we peaked at 970 properties on the market on Northern Beaches on realestatecomau.

Speaker 2:

So there was a sharp sort of decrease because if you take that 970 and then look at Christmas time, it did cut down.

Speaker 1:

Christmas. So it then went down to 739 in early December. It then went down to 573 in the 16th of December. It then went down to 514 properties. On the 19th of December it went to 449. So 449 was when it hit the bottom, and then it started growing on early january back up to 649. Yeah, and then um, what are we sitting at?

Speaker 2:

today, billy bob, that's right now we're at 700, so you can see it literally halved and then it's come back, um, in kind of two, two sort of stages. But buyers are telling me they're seeing, they like they're feeling reinvigorated. If they've been searching for the last sort of six months and they've had exposure to both sides of the calendar year, they feel invigorated by having a bit more choice, certainly feeling like they've got some new stuff to go and have a look at each weekend. But buyers that are selling to then go and buy, they've got got, I guess, favourable selling conditions but, you know, still feeling somewhat balanced by not rushing and feeling stressed about getting into their new place. So it's quite a good time to be transacting really.

Speaker 1:

And then there's the talk of the interest rate. So I think people are saying you know some, do you reckon some sellers are holding off junior interest rates. They're waiting for the rate drop to put their property on the market I'm.

Speaker 2:

I'm talking to some downsizes that are, particularly when they're not in a rush because their changeover costs will only get better. So, as the market comes up, you know they're sitting on, you know homes that you know might be worth four, five, and then they're going to be buying an apartment for two or three. So, as the market improves, potentially with interest rates, they feel pretty good about it.

Speaker 1:

But yeah, I think in some cases potentially and I'd have to say I think people it's being factored in with sentiment anyway. So everyone is saying it's a sure thing. Everyone has got the attitude of we know what's going to happen. The interest rates are going to go down. So I don't think it's going to be a massive jump in the market because of the positive news of the rates. I think people are sort of factoring that in as buyers and sellers already because it's just a known thing of the rates. I think people are sort of factoring that in as buyers and sellers already because it's just a known thing yep, yeah, there's lisa's um.

Speaker 2:

Take on that. Um, lots of withdrawals too. What's that? Yeah, you gotta say uh, stock stock will remain low. Lisa reckons is there gonna be a rate drop with feb? Uh, it could be the perfect storm for ice explosion. Jonathan Creek, good morning to you. Hope you had a great Christmas and New Year. Jonathan reckons it could be something you know. The federal government definitely wants one before the election. Keep an eye on that.

Speaker 1:

Yeah, I think that's a good call. I think if you're in government and you've got any control of influence, I think they want to be sending through a nice message saying you know we've got you some rate cuts. You should vote for us.

Speaker 2:

Yeah, we've curbed inflation cuts. You should vote for us. Yeah, we've curved inflation, but yeah, it's going to be a really um. I think it's going to be a really busy start to the new year. A lot of people making moves now and as interest rates come down, we're going to find people's borrowing capacity changes for the better and that's going to give people more choice absolutely, billy. Thank you very, very much. Guys. Keep an eye out on stock.

Speaker 1:

We'll definitely let for the better and that's going to give people more choice. Absolutely, Billy. Thank you very, very much. Guys, keep an eye out on stock. We'll definitely let you know in the coming months how stock levels are tracking. My punt is that I think we're going to start seeing we're at 700 now on realestatecom We'll probably end up probably no more than $800 or $850. And then we're going to see positive units, strata units, probably about 10% growth this year and in areas where there's not a lot of supply, not a lot of new units, and, I think, capital growth for houses. I think we'll between 0% to sort of 3%. So I think they're going to level off. I don't think it's going to be negative, but I think it's going to be very it's going to level off with houses, because that's pretty serious.

Speaker 2:

And if you want to check the stock levels in your area, go onto realestatecom. Put in your suburb or put in your area, make sure you untick the button that says surrounding areas and then you can go onto the map function and it will display that number at the bottom. Yeah, short week.

Speaker 1:

Hey, short week, woohoo See you.

Speaker 2:

Thanks, billy Bob, see you, what's the?

Speaker 1:

date? What's the date? Week? Hey, see ya. Thanks, billy Bob. See ya, see ya.

Speaker 2:

In Melbourne there's stock, but the feedback is C-levels.

Speaker 1:

Interesting. Alright, take care, see ya everyone.