The PROPERTY DOCTORS, Sydney Australia Novak Properties
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The PROPERTY DOCTORS, Sydney Australia Novak Properties
NOVAK NEWS - HOW NATURAL DISASTER AFFECT YOUR LOCAL PROPERTY MARKET???
Can natural disasters permanently alter the real estate landscape? Join us as Trevor Bowen, a full-time firefighter and real estate agent from Victoria, brings his unique perspective on how fire and flood risks impact property values and rental markets. With a focus on areas like the Northern Beaches, we unpack the intricate balance between the allure of picturesque locations and the undeniable risks they carry. Discover how properties near waterways or bushfire-prone areas navigate the delicate dance between appeal and danger, with anecdotes like the erosion-hit Collaroy Beach illustrating both the challenges and resilience of these communities.
Explore the dynamic shifts in property markets following natural disasters. We examine how skyrocketing rental prices and regulatory challenges reshape the landscape for investors and residents alike. Trevor shares insights into the varying capital growth seen in high-risk versus safer areas, highlighting the surprising factors that influence market trends. Whether it's the unexpected flood in DY or the broader repercussions observed in Lismore or even California, the complexities of environmental risks demand our attention. This episode navigates the ripple effects on construction, trade, and community resilience, posing crucial questions about long-term recovery.
Beyond the economic and structural impacts, our conversation extends a heartfelt empathy towards disaster victims worldwide. We acknowledge the tireless heroes who provide aid in the face of adversity and encourage listeners to contribute to relief efforts. By shining a light on these stories, we aim to inspire awareness and action, urging our audience to consider the human side of natural disasters. With Trevor's expertise and our shared reflections, we hope to foster a deeper understanding of how communities can better protect themselves from nature's unpredictability.
Guys and girls, we get asked often by buyers, sellers, people in our community about fire risks being close to the bush, flood risks getting flooded in a one in 300, one in 25. We're going to cover these topics tonight and let you know how these things affect your property value when selling.
Speaker 2:Good evening, you've got the duo again, guys.
Speaker 1:Hello, hello, welcome back to 2025.
Speaker 2:Yeah, wow, it's certainly started, not quite the way a lot of people would have anticipated, but this morning we were talking about with the lovely Trevor Bowen Amazing guy, what an amazing guy. For those of you guys that did not see this morning's Morning Minutes, you can go back through our social media and you can watch it there. Trevor is a full-time firefighter down in Victoria and the guy is also a full-time real estate agent. He's a gun in his area as well. What a work. Yeah, I don't know. Actually, one of the questions I asked Trevor was when do you sleep? Because if you're doing that many hours in two full-time jobs, I don't actually know when the guy sleeps. But Guy gave some invaluable information today.
Speaker 2:Obviously, with, you know, bushfires being such a massive topic of conversation, we thought that we'd actually address tonight about what happens when a natural disaster takes place in your area. What effects does that actually have on things like not just the environment? Obviously that's a major factor, but how does that affect property values? What happens to the property market? What happens to the rental market? Does it ever recover? Does it ever recover? Yeah, and not only that. But you know many of you guys will know we're northern beaches agents and you know you're either in a flood zone or a fire zone, um, and you know, so we we're obviously selling properties in these areas where you know so many properties are so prone to this kind of stuff. It's funny actually. I was having a conversation the other day with someone about the northern beaches and they actually had no idea that there was so much bushland on the northern beaches Surrounded.
Speaker 1:You know, and I guess it's very rare sometimes you actually do a.
Speaker 2:you know, maybe Mark's got the Mark, just pumped the air up. That's nice Blowing in the wind.
Speaker 1:It's a bit of a fun ride. But you know, I think it's. You know a lot of people just don't even know. So you drive through suburbs you'd never think it's surrounded by bushlands. You drive through suburbs you never know they flood. Handy fact for us, and whenever I talk to people about flooding I discuss our office. Now our office is in our area. There's a 16-storey, 17-storey building. There's two of them, the Merriton building. When you drive through DY, there is no way that you would think it gets affected by natural disasters.
Speaker 1:Now some, yeah, you know, and there's a thing called immunity. So when you, when often you have to build, you have to have an immunity to fire or immunity to flood. So they actually make you build differently. Before, in the olden days, they sort of tolerated it build it where you want. Bad luck if it floods. Now there's a lot of metrics and measures that are in place when you're getting a DA, a development application on a property that the council makes you do. For instance, our office is built a metre and a half above ground level. Now, when you're a shop, that sucks, because if you have one step when you're a retailer from the ground level, that's bad news. We've actually got six or seven steps why. It's about the immunity. You know if it's a one in 25 or a one in 100 year flood. The council makers build higher. So there's a lot of little things out there that you might not know, and you know it's funny.
Speaker 2:You look at an area like dy and for any of you guys that are watching that don't know dy, it is a bustling um suburb. It's full of shops, it's got high rises. In a million years you would never anticipate that a suburb like dy would ever be affected by a flood. You think that's ridiculous, that's overkill. But it would be about what? Three, four years ago now? Yeah, we had one of those one in one, uh, one in 300 floods and I think I was one in 25, one in 25 what?
Speaker 2:when there was the river rapid going down pit water road, um, and, and I can tell you now, our shop didn't get affected, but there were many, many shops that actually were wiped out.
Speaker 1:Cars were, being lifted to move down the road.
Speaker 2:Yeah, 100%. You know. Pitwater Road, to give you guys an idea, is the main arterial road, one of the main arterial roads that cuts through the northern beaches, you know, and there was almost like a river rapid going through there. So you know, can it happen? Yes, does it happen? Yes, does it happen often? No, does the council and the government put, put precautions in place to protect people? It certainly does, and you know it can be very frustrating.
Speaker 2:If you're looking to build a property, people just go. There's so much red tape. This is ridiculous. All the things that I've got to do, landslide, yeah. But then you look at what's going on at the moment in Los Angeles, over in California, and you go okay, I'm actually starting to understand this. You know where you've got this major city that is. You know if it looks like certainly on the news that the whole place is up in flames and you just think to yourself, how in the world does something like that happen? But you know, obviously we've been talking a lot about this. I've been, you know, watching the news, as everyone has, I mean clued to it.
Speaker 2:But yeah, you know these homes because they're so earthquake prone over there.
Speaker 1:They're built out of wood a lot of them and guys. This is a live show, so if you have any questions for real estate agents long-serving real estate agents that you want to ask, feel free, we'll address it live.
Speaker 2:But, lisa, I've got a question for you.
Speaker 1:Yes, would you buy in a flood-prone area or a bushfire area with all of?
Speaker 2:your knowledge? Definitely, yes, yep, wow, yep, yep, definitely so. Look, you know, and I've sold many a property in those areas, as I said, the northern beaches is rife with um flood-prone properties andfire properties and you see the things that people have put into place. I mean, I'm selling a property at the moment. It's sitting on 22 acres. It's up in Terry Hills, it is surrounded by bush. The owners built the property 20 years ago. It is double brick and it's got the most incredible sprinkler and shutter system around the property.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so, you know, people do things and they put precautions in place when they're living in these areas. These days, these days, they do, these days they do. But there's so much more mark I actually put into. I'm not gonna not gonna lie. I've been gonna be totally transparent.
Speaker 2:I put into chat, gpt, um about what happens to areas and communities when they're affected by natural disasters. And there's so many things. There's so many things, when the natural things that you think of are, it's going to affect, um, you know, the property market. It's going to affect the rental market. I want to talk about that in a sec, um, but there are actually so insurances as the other thing that comes to mind.
Speaker 2:You look at flooding, for instance, and you know this is something that I didn't even think about. But not only can it cause foundation erosion, but you've got to worry about mold, and the big thing is electrical. I know we had a flood mark, mark, many, many years ago, and I must say it cooks a lot of things. We had a huge flood at our place. This was going back years and years ago and at the time Mark was at work and I remember thinking to myself who the hell do you call when your house is flooding? Who do you call Fire department? Cool, well, you know, but most people you wouldn't think so. Most people wouldn't think so.
Speaker 1:Most people wouldn't think so. Well, I remember talking to a fire a couple of years back and they said one of the biggest call-outs they get is hot water systems blowing in unit blocks and because it's just this constant trickle of water, they've got the authority to go in and stop it, whereas you know you're not going to call a locksmith, you know Strata's not going to help you in. So it's that case. But one thing I want to ask yeah, you said that you would buy in a fire area and you would buy in a flood area. I've got to qualify that.
Speaker 1:A lot of beauty comes with the bush. A lot of beauty. Beauty comes from a lake. Yep, um. So I think at the end of the day, you've got a way up there's. You know there's beauty for potentially, your, your whole property ownership and you're never going to see it flood. But there is that risk and that's the gauntlet that people run because they want to live on a lake. They want to. Yeah, uh, you know, a half a kilometer from a lake or 300 meters from a lake. So I think people look, are prepared to walk, you know, walk that fine line and actually, and take that risk to buy, but I think that you've got to actually really understand it. Fortunately, when I was in um, one of my majors at school was, uh, studying narrow bed lake um or did geology I'm having a laugh because I've seen your school report, mark, and it was pretty sure it was straight Fs.
Speaker 1:I found an interesting selection so I did all right. But I studied that lake and it's incredible how many properties are surrounded by that, surround that beautiful lake. And again, it's just a risk that everyone on the northern beach is taking. I reckon you're buying for cheaper because of these risks.
Speaker 2:Well.
Speaker 1:But then I think you're paying a premium because you're on the water Well it depends.
Speaker 2:As an example, you look at what happened in Collaroy right as an example. That's a big one. You would never, ever think that you're going to lie there on the beach front and something is going to take place Erosion. And for any of you guys that don't actually know what took place on Collar Road Beach, just Google it and you'll have a look. They have now put precautions into place. The community were up in arms about it and obviously it cost an absolute fortune, but they built these massive seawalls there, but there were houses that got totally wiped out there. Yep, you know now has that had a major effect on those sale prices? It did for a while. I think it still does. It did for a little while.
Speaker 1:I think you're buying a cheaper beachfront Because if you're buying an area that doesn't get affected like Collaroy again, but in the basin it's not part of that natural erosion for somewhat reason, they are more premium homes but those ones that got affected they're cheap homes. They are more premium homes but those ones that got affected they're cheap homes. So I know we sold to a professional couple that bought that beachfront at the time of the erosion.
Speaker 2:I thought they bought it incredibly high. They did, but it had just taken place. I reckon that what happened down there at Collaroy, with those houses getting washed away, that had only taken place. I think it was about a year prior, and they were willing to take the gamble. That had only taken place. I think it was about a year prior and they were willing to take the gamble. There's no doubt they absolutely did purchase that property for a discounted price as a result of that scenario. But it's gone up relatively. I was just going to say it's the years roll on, though it certainly still does go up. And then you know, look, we have so many areas across the Northern Beaches. We've got Narrabeen. You've got on on the lakes, you've got flooding. That takes place. Um, you know, people still do get insured. I've sold many properties around there and people are nervous. They're like well, am I even going to get insurance? Um, and then you know, obviously you've got a lot of bushfire prone areas. So much bush on the northern beaches.
Speaker 1:It's incredible is a bushfire area going to go up less than a non-bushfire area?
Speaker 2:Look, I think it's just a matter of supply and demand, like it always is with real estate. You know you've got a very niche market that wants to live in the bush. When you're living in an area like the Northern Beaches, it's not like living up, you know, somewhere that's quite regional where it's just a given that you're going to be living in bushland, where it's just a given that you're going to be living in bushland. Some people want to be living in the bushland on the northern beaches, still with that proximity to the beach as well.
Speaker 1:You didn't answer the question. Ask me again Is a non-bushfire?
Speaker 1:area going to go up as much as a bushfire area. Is your capital growth going to be better in a non-affected area? It's got to be. I. What do you say? I personally think it's relative and I'll give you an example. I remember and this is this is a perfect example, but it's not about flooding or air fire, any of these things.
Speaker 1:But I remember when I was in my early career, two sales reps, one bought in a bad street in one suburb suburb was freshwater, was busiest street freshwater. One bought in the best street and interesting was when they sold. Five, ten years later they sold at the same time. They spent the same amount on the property and I thought surely the one that was in the best street in freshwater is going to perform better than the worst street in freshwater. And I've seen this happen time and time again. They actually they tracked yes, yes, it tracked very well the good one, but the one in the busiest street tracked a similar percentile growth. I believe that all of these factors are already built in and I'm personally opposite of what you're saying.
Speaker 1:I reckon that it's all relative. So if you're buying in a flood area, you're buying it for cheaper. You ride the same wave that the flood area non-flood area. I just believe it's the same wave Look it's all going up.
Speaker 2:It's all going up. There's no doubt about that. And also, flavio has just made a great comment about the Lismore floods. Yeah, I mean the absolute devastation that took place there. You know there's no doubt that something like that is 100% having an effect on property prices. Yeah, as what's going on over in California at the moment, you can only imagine that property market over there. I would think it's going to take a big again. This is just my opinion, but you one would think that's going to take a hit for quite some time. But I read an article today just going back to California and what's going on over there.
Speaker 1:Can you remind me to bring that one back up?
Speaker 2:Which one? Liz Moore, california, california. Yes, about the property market. But I read an article today where these people that are now displaced with respect to what's gone on with their homes you know a lot of people are now looking for rentals and landlords are saying well, you know, that house was twenty thousand dollars per month to rent a couple of weeks ago, now $35,000 a month. Yes, so where the property markets taking a hit the rental market, we've been to I write what about you're right?
Speaker 2:rentals is going to skyrocket. What about rental? You're right, rentals is going to skyrocket because these people are displaced. And listen guys, you know it's not. I know what we're saying on the news is all the multi, multi-million dollar homes, but there's people that are also living in non-multi multi-million dollar properties that also need to obviously go somewhere to live. Yeah, so that rental market is is just going to get absolutely smashed. I think they're talking about, isn't it? Some 10,000 homes.
Speaker 1:There's some obscene rents being paid for people that have been displaced.
Speaker 2:Obscene.
Speaker 1:It's an accommodation.
Speaker 2:It's amazing so the rental market is absolutely going to go through the roof. And again, just reading this article today, they were saying, like we do in New South Wales, they've also got um, uh, uh, what's the word?
Speaker 2:I'm looking for rental, um, regulations, regulations, sorry that's the word I'm looking for rental regulations where you know you can only charge a certain amount of rent. You can't just, you know, be charging obscene amounts. But who's looking? At the moment, these people need somewhere to livelords are seeing this as an opportunity. Call it whatever you want, but you know that rental market is going to absolutely go through the roof. But property market do you reckon that property market's going to take a hit for some time?
Speaker 1:Well, this is what I reckon, guys, listen close, I believe if it's an area that is commonly known for flooding or commonly known for you know it's on a bush, you can, you know you may, there may be a fire. I think there's there's like a natural expectation that's been built in for maybe 50 years, right, 100 years, whatever where I where I think it gets shot, shot through the foot on this example is California. There is no way that I thought that was going to happen.
Speaker 1:I think that's the dangerous part for me when investing in property because you know, sure, I know that this is a flood area, I know this is a fire-risk area, but I think parts of America that have actually actually that it happened to I. I just there's no way I would ever fathom so bringing that back to sydney, new south wales, northern beaches, I think if it's a, if it's an event, that's just completely. You know, I think it was one of those things, yeah, yeah um, which was probably ended up being more temporary than permanent.
Speaker 1:But yeah, I think it's interesting with these disasters, guys, and and how can we have that discussion tonight?
Speaker 2:we don't even know those things no, yeah, you know and and but, but I agree with you, mark. I think the biggest thing there is that people were totally blindsided. Again, if we draw back to our market, northern beaches and Sydney's people are going okay, narrow been. We know there's certain areas there at floods. You hear the lake. You know, we know that there's certain risk involved if you're going to be buying on Collar Road Beach. It's been so well publicised and documented what happened many years ago there and the destruction there. You know and again, you know fire prone areas where you've got these heavy, heavy bushfires. But when you're going into an area where they just really don't have a history where major fires have ripped through these areas, it's a catastrophe, yeah.
Speaker 1:Natural disaster yeah. It's completely unexpected. Well hey, we can poke the stick at them every way.
Speaker 2:How long would you say, mark and again, this is just your opinion. How long would you say when something catastrophic like that happens happens, whether it be those major fires in california, or a major earthquake in japan, or a major cyclone in fiji, or whatever it may be, how long would you say it will take the property market to recover from something like that? Just in your opinion?
Speaker 1:I don't believe it. If it does, I think those things go through generations and are passed down through generations and I think, look, if we're indexing it to dollars, it gets better, it gets easier. People forget, but I think there's always an impact. But I think tonight I really want to talk about the areas that we expect. And you know, there's a natural disaster and it's a calculated one.
Speaker 2:But the ones that are completely uncalculatedated. I don't think we can probably go down that rabbit hole. No, yeah, I agree with you. I agree with you. Um, so look, there's so many other factors that are involved. Guys, when natural disasters take place, obviously you've got the physical damage that takes place to a property. And again, when you're looking at an area, we keep obviously drawing back to california because it's just recently taken place and it's an absolute, as you said, market catastrophe. But you know, you've got to. You look at that. I know we were talking about it yesterday. You've got trades, you've got builders, you've got so many things. It's just putting everyone, it's it's working these industries to the absolute extremes. And then you know these builders and tradies and people like that just start charging astronomical amounts as well. You know up go, you know everything from carpet to paint to wood, to absolutely everything.
Speaker 1:I like Flavio. Flavio's great Flavio's a man of common sense?
Speaker 2:What?
Speaker 1:else has Flavio got to say he's a man of common sense? And, guys, as you can see, this is a live show. Make any comment you like, we'll talk about it. We'll address it tonight.
Speaker 2:Relevant to the topic the key point is that cannot. You might want to read that. I don't have my glasses.
Speaker 1:The key point is that you can't become complacent or take things for granted that it will never happen.
Speaker 2:Yes, spot on yep, yep, um, flavio, honestly, I could not agree with you more, and I think that's the thing that caught us all, the whole world, by surprise with what's going on over there. But the best piece of advice this morning that I got that I will be taking with me forever is what Trevor Bowen, the fireman slash real estate agent that we had on the show this morning. He said get out early, get out early, get out early. The big mistake that we all make, I think, naturally, is that we stay. We want to help, especially men. We want to, yeah, the hunters. We, you know, we want to help we want to save.
Speaker 2:We want it. That's exactly right. But he said the people that he sees that survive these things are the ones that get out early. Don't be a hero. No, no, no, definitely. So I would definitely be taking that advice with me.
Speaker 2:Decreased property values I think we've already discussed that. Insurance costs and availability, so you can only imagine what those insurance premiums are going to look like in those areas that were affected. We certainly know what happens in an area where we operate on the Northern beaches, to areas that are prone to bushfires and prone to floods. There's no doubt that those homeowners are are paying a premium there. Displacement and recovery time so we talked about what displacement looks like, mark, with respect to, yeah, rents going through the roof. That rental market is going through the roof in California. It absolutely is. But not only that, mark, just something that's come to mind. You know, if you're a landlord, I'm thinking that your world's best investment as a landlord wasn't to purchase a 20 million dollar property and rent it out like how many of these luxury homes, for I'm talking at the higher end. I'm well aware that there's, you know, lots of other people that that have been affected, but how many investments can they?
Speaker 2:yeah, you know, where do they go?
Speaker 1:yeah, they're all displaced. Where do they all go? Yeah, you know that's. That's probably moving to another city.
Speaker 2:If I could, well, you know, yeah, you've got it. You've got to wonder, you're going to get nailed. You got to wonder about that impact on local infrastructure yeah, roads, bridges, utilities that are damaged and destroyed, schools, hospitals and public services that are affected. I mean, you know environmental changes in the landscape, soil erosion, like things that have actually happened that's right to all the areas that are surrounding that. Water contamination, air quality issues, market demand shifts, like there's so many things here, and then the long-term rebuilding costs.
Speaker 1:So, guys, I hope hopefully helped you tonight, I think, as real estate agents talking about on the northern beaches. I think, in summary, what I could say is if there are things that are known which most of them are, you know, that are calculated really do your research. I believe you are buying it for cheaper. I believe it has as much capital growth as anything else in that area or that precinct district. You know Northern Beaches Council, whatever the whole area. But I think really do your calculations when you're making that risk. Don't think that's not going to happen, but just sort of be ready for stuff. So you know me personally, 32 years, a real estate agent, I'm up for flood risk, I'm up for flood risk, I'm up for fire risk, but I'm going to be prepared.
Speaker 2:Um, and you know some good advice, you know from from professionals out there and you know a lot of the and, just finishing off on that mark, you know a lot of these properties and, again, I think you know we're almost experts, if you like, because the northern beaches is so full of flood and and bushfire prone areas, um, that we're selling in all the time and we're managing property in all the time. You know, can it happen? Yes, does it happen often? No, have these properties continued to go up in value? Absolutely, has people enjoyed amazing lifestyles in these areas? Absolutely, and so it's just a matter of do the pros outweigh the cons and that's it. But there's a risk involved in anything when you're living, purchasing, renting, managing a property. But property has always proved to be a very, very solid investment. That is 100%. Anything else you want to add, mark?
Speaker 1:No, I'm up for it. Look, we actually own a property that's affected by a flood, um, and bushfires and bushfires, and you know, we, we sort of I guess you know we went into it knowing and we think it's going to be a wonderful capital growth property. It has been capital, wonderful capital growth property, but you just got to be careful. And I and I feel sad for when people walk away from a deal because of these risks, because the whole reason they were enticed or introduced in that property is because it was a beachfront or because it was close to the lake or because they had a beautiful bushland view, and they walk on that reason, it's like, yeah, you're actually, you're buying it relatively it's always the at the weekend conversation.
Speaker 2:I often say that, uh, you know, everyone becomes a um, real estate property and, uh, financial expert, particularly on a weekend at a dinner party. Yeah, people go, you're gonna buy there. You know that floods, it's like okay well, how often does it actually flood? Because if it only floods one in 100 years, I think you're going to be okay and that one that we sold a couple of years ago, colorado Beachfront.
Speaker 1:Can you imagine the amount of times they've told people that they've bought this house? Oh my gosh, people go oh, you had that really bad erosion. It's just like every time you tell someone you bought it's like, oh well, that's beautiful on the beach. That actually almost got taken away about five years ago, ten years ago. So yeah, it's interesting, but I still like it.
Speaker 2:Absolutely, Guys, hopefully we've added some value here and again. We just want to finish off by saying our hearts absolutely go out to every single person that has been affected. It's hard enough to watch, sitting in the comfort of our lounge room. It's hard to watch, you know, with your hands over your eyes just going. How did this even happen? I can't even imagine what it must be like for everyone over there. So please understand that our hearts absolutely do go out to every single person that's been affected over there and well done to every single person that's been on the ground working in those awful, awful conditions, as well, and there's a lot of other places around the world that are going through the same thing.
Speaker 1:If you can help help, you know what I mean, I guess. If yeah, yep, that's it.
Speaker 2:Guys have an awesome night. Love ya, See ya.